The upcoming mayoral race in Shumen is shaping up to be a tense and closely contested battle. Public sentiment and the latest sociological surveys suggest that the outcome will be decided in a runoff between the ruling party, GERB, and the opposition, BSP. According to studies commissioned by political entities, candidates from GERB are expected to have a slight lead of 3-4% in the first round. However, the runoff presents a different scenario, with the possibility of the results being overturned, albeit by a narrow margin. The final outcome in Shumen remains uncertain until the very end, hinging on whether there will be a consolidation of the protest vote against the currently ruling party, GERB, or if only the core supporters will turn out for the runoff. This scenario sets the stage for intriguing and unpredictable elections in Bulgaria’s tenth-largest city.
In the May European elections, the BSP narrowly lost to GERB in Shumen by just 118 votes, providing the left-wing party with a glimmer of hope for a breakthrough in the regional capital. However, it remains uncertain whether the opposition candidate will succeed in mobilizing the votes for change during the runoff.
On October 27, a total of 82,287 people are eligible to vote in Shumen. According to the official population data from the Registry Agency, the municipality has 111,635 residents, which is nearly 2,000 fewer than in the previous elections. Despite the shrinking electorate, the number of candidates vying for power is on the rise. In the mayoral race, there are a total of 13 contenders—three more than in 2015—while 386 candidates are competing for the 41-seat municipal council, representing an increase of around 15% compared to the last elections.
This year, the municipality of Shumen has a solid budget of 80 million leva, with 60% allocated from state subsidies. The regional capital is home to several major industrial enterprises, including the prominent aluminum combine “Alcomet” and three factories belonging to “Ficosota Holding.” In recent years, numerous new investors have also entered the Shumen Industrial Park, indicating a growing interest in the area’s economic development.
As the elections approach, the shifting dynamics and increasing competition paint a complex picture of Shumen’s political landscape, one that may well determine its future direction.
Shumen faces a significant challenge with low income levels—monthly wages in the region remain considerably below the national average, with a gross salary of just 985 leva reported in June. Consequently, while job opportunities exist in Shumen, there is a pronounced labor shortage. Local businesses are increasingly voiceing concerns over a lack of qualified workers, as young, active individuals continue to emigrate in search of better prospects. Meanwhile, the public sector remains one of the largest employers in the area, with the municipal budget ensuring the survival of various local activities. This backdrop makes the heightened interest in the upcoming local elections in Shumen all the more understandable, underscoring the importance of political representation in the municipal government.
With 13 candidates running for the mayoral position, incumbent mayor Lyubomir Christov of GERB is seeking a second term. Polling indicates that the race for mayor is likely to culminate in a runoff between him and the BSP’s candidate, Ventsislav Venkov.
Lyubomir Christov, aged 65, also serves as the regional coordinator for GERB and has previously held the position of MP in both the 42nd and 43rd National Assemblies (2014-2015). With nearly two decades of experience within the Ministry of Interior, he has also served in the army. Notably, in 2009, a decision by the Commission for Dossiers revealed his past affiliation with the former State Security. Christov was elected mayor of Shumen in November 2015, securing 64% of the votes in a runoff against the BSP candidate.
Currently, sociologists anticipate another runoff between GERB and BSP in Shumen, forecasting a fierce mayoral battle right up until the election day.
Ventsislav Venkov, the BSP candidate, aged 62, is positioned as a representative of the civic quota, although he is linked to the left. His career began as an activist in the former youth organization, the Komsomol, after which he spent over 20 years as a journalist for the newspaper “24 Chasa.” He has hosted popular programs on regional television and served as the regional governor of Shumen from 2013 to 2014. In recent years, Venkov has worked as the executive director of the Bulgarian-Turkish Chamber of Commerce and has been a municipal councilor, representing the local electorate in various capacities.
As these two candidates prepare for a potentially intense electoral showdown, the stakes for Shumen’s future governance are high, reflecting the broader economic and social challenges facing the region.
Another candidate has emerged in the mayoral campaign, entering the race with a strong start and expectations for a favorable performance—Dobromir Draev, 48, who previously chaired one of the right-wing groups in the local parliament. Draev, who works in the non-governmental sector and is the founder of a popular scouting club in the city, was one of the sharpest critics of incumbent mayor Lyubomir Christov during the past term, gaining him popularity among the citizens. He is now running for mayor and leading the list for the local coalition “Movement Bulgaria for the Citizens” comprised of BND, EPP, SSD, People’s Voice, and NDSV.
Meanwhile, the traditional right-wing coalition “Democratic Bulgaria” is fielding a non-partisan candidate in Shumen—lawyer Arthur Altunyan, a former municipal councilor from the “Gergiovden” movement and a respected legal expert in the city. In the previous local elections, right-wing parties from the Reformist Bloc garnered 15% of the votes in Shumen, becoming the third political force with seven seats in the municipal council. Now, the “Democratic Bulgaria” coalition hopes to replicate its success from 2015 and expand its influence in the city.
Although the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) is the leading political force in the region, it ranks fourth in influence within the municipal context. In 2015, DPS received 9.9% of the votes (3,522 votes), but showed considerably weaker results in this year’s European elections. However, the party is now focused on increasing its presence in local government and becoming an indispensable factor in decision-making. This challenge was articulated by DPS chairman Mustafa Karadayi during his visit to the city. To mobilize voters, the party has nominated former MP Chetin Kazak as its mayoral candidate in Shumen, and special envoy Hristo Biserov has been dispatched specifically for this campaign.
As the candidates gear up, the competitive political landscape in Shumen is set to create an electrifying atmosphere in the lead-up to the local elections, with each party vying for a significant role in the future governance of the city.
The mayoral race in Shumen has also seen the entry of former BSP mayor Krasimir Kostov, who governed for two terms until 2015. After failing to secure the candidacy for his own party this time around, he registered as a representative of the “Bulgarian Social Democrats” party, only to be promptly expelled from the BSP for violating the party’s statutes. Despite this setback, Kostov retains a loyal following among leftist supporters and is expected to secure at least one seat in the municipal council.
VMRO has put forward Dr. Stefan Minkov, a historian and lecturer at Shumen University, as their mayoral candidate. He will also lead the list for city councilors.
The Attack party is participating in the elections with its local coordinator, Dobrin Chaylev, a former military officer and current municipal councilor.
The National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) has nominated Natalia Stefanova, the chairwoman of their Shumen branch and also a municipal councilor, as their candidate.
Additionally, the coalition “We, the Citizens” has chosen retired Colonel Mitko Yotsov, a former commander of the Shumen garrison, as their mayoral candidate. Previously, he was nominated by VMRO as a candidate from the civic quota, securing two seats on the municipal council in the last elections.
With a blend of familiar faces and new contenders in the race, the political dynamics in Shumen are becoming increasingly intricate, making the upcoming elections a pivotal moment for the future governance of the city.
The local coalition ABV (Bulgarian Socialist Party) is participating in the elections with its municipal leader and incumbent councilor Valentin Velev, a former head of the Organized Crime Directorate within the Shumen police.
Other candidates for mayor of Shumen include Nikolay Kolev from the party “Volya” and Valentin Malamov from the party “MIR.”
The upcoming elections are expected to create a diverse municipal council. Both the left and the right, as well as the so-called patriotic space in Shumen, are fragmented for the local elections. This fragmentation suggests that the newly formed council will likely seek thematic majorities on key issues.
On the right, Democratic Bulgaria, along with the coalition around DBG, are competing for the votes of their supporters. Not to mention GERB, whose leader and mayoral candidate, Lyubomir Christov, has expressed concerns about a “theft” of right-wing votes. In the previous elections, GERB secured 14 seats in the municipal council while the Reformist Bloc garnered 7. How these votes will be distributed this time remains to be seen.
As the electoral landscape continues to shift, the potential for a fragmented council highlights the importance of collaboration and negotiation among various political factions in addressing the challenges facing Shumen.
On the left, the BSP is likely to lose votes due to the candidacy of former Shumen mayor Krasimir Kostov. The left-wing party is also facing fragmentation with the independent participation of ABV in the elections. In 2015, the BSP won 7 seats in the municipal council, while ABV secured 2.
Both the left and the right are seeing divisions, and the elections will reveal the real weight of the formations that pull votes away from the traditional parties. Analysts are keen to see how successful political engineering in Shumen has been in diminishing the influence of both the left and the right.
The patriotic parties are also not united, as each is contesting the elections with its own list. Previously, Attack had one councilor, VMRO had two, and NFSB also had two. Now, their space is further complicated by the entry of another strong candidate, putting one or two of the old political forces at risk of losing their foothold in local governance.
The fragmentation of both the right and left anticipates a diverse municipal council, where achieving a stable majority may be challenging. This situation is likely to enhance the influence of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), granting them a more substantial role in decision-making processes. Political analyst Valentin Zakhariev, a former director of Shumen Television and host of a political program, forecasts that the BSP has a chance to win in Shumen if they manage to consolidate public discontent against the four-year governance of GERB by the time of the runoff.
As the political landscape unfolds, the interplay of these competing interests will play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of Shumen’s municipal council and its administrative decisions.
Shumen faces several serious issues, with the most pressing being the water crisis. Residents pay the highest prices for dirty water in Bulgaria—3.40 leva per cubic meter—while the water from the municipal supply is not even treated, as the city lacks a wastewater treatment plant. Shumen, along with neighboring Targovishte and Veliki Preslav, draws water from the Ticha Reservoir, which is designated for irrigation purposes and does not even have a sanitary protection zone. For years, the people of Shumen have been purchasing bottled mineral water for drinking, which further strains their finances.
The city also grapples with serious ecological problems. During the winter months, Shumen ranks among the top five cities with the most polluted air, leading to its eligibility to apply for EU programs focused on ecological transport. However, Shumen was dropped from the rankings due to its lack of a municipal transportation company, resulting in a significant loss of 12 million leva earmarked for electric buses. These electric buses would have not only alleviated some of the environmental issues but also improved the transport situation in the city, which is currently entirely under the control of a private company, eliciting widespread dissatisfaction due to inadequate and outdated buses.
Moreover, as previously noted, low incomes among the working population and a declining population pose significant challenges for the region. Addressing these multifaceted issues will require concerted efforts from local leaders and political representatives, particularly in the upcoming elections, where the electorate will be keenly assessing candidates’ plans for meaningful change.
All of these issues significantly undermine trust in the ruling party GERB, which has repeatedly promised Shumen residents improvements such as a wastewater treatment facility for drinking water, solutions to the air pollution problem, and a higher standard of living, as noted by Valentin Zakhariev. However, he warns that it remains uncertain whether this dissatisfaction will coalesce into protest votes in a runoff between GERB and BSP. The ruling party is expected to mobilize its entire administrative and corporate vote, as this election is of critical importance to them. On the other hand, there is a strong wave of negativity towards the current administration in Shumen, making it unclear how votes will be distributed in the runoff, according to the political analyst.
Zakhariev believes that the left will increase its presence in the municipal council, although both ABV and former mayor Krasimir Kostov are likely to draw votes away from it. The coalition “Democratic Bulgaria,” which is participating in the local elections for the first time in this format, is also expected to secure a mandate in the local parliament, according to Zakhariev. He predicts strong performances from the local coalition around DBG as well.
As the political landscape in Shumen continues to evolve, these dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the upcoming elections and determining the city’s governance trajectory. The interplay of dissatisfaction, party strategies, and the potential for new coalitions may lead to significant changes in the local council’s composition.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) is also expected to perform well, overcoming its internal divisions and increasing the number of its councilors, positioning itself once again as a key player in local politics. According to Zakhariev, significant losers are likely to be ABV, which is projected to fail to secure any mandates.
Zakhariev believes that GERB will also lose ground in the upcoming municipal council, with a portion of its votes shifting towards Democratic Bulgaria. The patriotic vote is similarly fragmented, which may result in lower outcomes for NFSB and potentially for VMRO as well.
Ultimately, everything hinges on voter turnout, which is a decisive factor in determining which parties will make it to the runoff and how many councilors they will have in the next local parliament, analysts emphasize. In the previous local elections, turnout in Shumen was below 50%.
This scenario underscores the critical importance of mobilizing supporters in the lead-up to the elections, where every vote may play a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape in Shumen and the efficacy of governance in addressing the unresolved issues facing the city.
Traditional parties are facing challenges in the smaller municipalities as well. According to experienced politicians closely monitoring the political processes in the region, surprises are expected in these elections, particularly in the smaller communities. Until 2015, half of the ten municipalities in Shumen Province were a traditional stronghold for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). However, in the last elections, GERB made significant inroads by winning one of DPS’s bastions—Nikola Kozlev.
Previously, GERB held mayoralties in five municipalities: Shumen, Novi Pazar, Nikola Kozlev, Smyadovo, and Kaspichan. The DPS began its mandate with mayors in four municipalities: Venets, Kaolinovo, Varbitsa, and Hitrino, while the BSP had only one municipal mayor in Veliki Preslav.
Currently, however, the DPS faces serious issues in Hitrino, where it is contesting against the sitting mayor and former regional leader of the movement, Nuridin Ismail, who is running as a candidate for the DOSHT party this time around.
Despite being the leading political force in the recent European elections—receiving the most votes in the region—the situation within the DPS is complex, and this year’s elections are expected to be challenging. Observers note the surprising emergence of Hristo Biserov as a key figure in the campaign in Shumen Province. It appears that the DPS will attempt to mitigate the loss of its traditional voters, many of whom are emigrating, by enhancing its influence among the Roma community, according to local politicians.
As the political dynamics shift, the upcoming elections will provide a crucial opportunity for both traditional and emerging parties to redefine their strategies and address the changing demographics and needs of the electorate in the region.
However, forecasts indicate that the DPS will not succeed in reclaiming either Nikola Kozlev or Hitrino. In the best-case scenario, they are expected to retain control over three municipalities—Kaolinovo, Varbitsa, and Venets—although the situation in Venets is also complex. There, two strong candidates were competing until the last moment, and it is anticipated that the party’s councilors may become divided in the next municipal council. Observers are highlighting a potential “divorce” within the DPS in Venets, mentioning that during his visit there, leader Mustafa Karadayi spoke against one of the candidates who has been traditionally strong in the area.
The DPS is also facing challenges in Veliki Preslav, where strong structures of the DOSHT party exist in the villages, competing for the same votes and emerging as a leading political force in some areas during the last elections.
GERB will also encounter problems in the municipalities as they have changed two of their incumbent mayors—one in Novi Pazar and one in Kaspichan. After two terms leading the municipality of Kaspichan, the current GERB mayor Milena Nedeva did not receive support for re-election. The ruling party has nominated assistant notary Julia Valcheva-Dobreva, who received the highest votes from the GERB municipal conference. In the 2015 elections, Milena Nedeva secured 53.7% of the votes in Kaspichan. Now, she is participating in the elections as an independent candidate.
These shifts in party dynamics and candidate selections reflect the broader challenges faced by traditional parties in adapting to the evolving political landscape, particularly in smaller municipalities where local loyalties and emerging parties may significantly influence electoral outcomes.
GERB has also replaced its mayor in Novi Pazar, where it was initially expected that the incumbent Mayor Ivaylo Kamadzhiev would be nominated for a second term. However, the local GERB structure supported municipal party chairman Angel Kutsarov, who ultimately became the official candidate for mayor.
The victory of GERB in the municipality of Smyadovo is considered indisputable, where the ruling party is led by incumbent mayor Ivanka Petrova. In Nikola Kozlev, they are once again fielding the candidacy of Eshref Redjeb. Redjeb’s name was previously linked to an investigation by journalist Vasil Ivanov from Nova TV in 2016, which revealed how the mayor used municipal employees to work in his family’s private store in Shumen. At that time, Ivanov uncovered that the mayor of Kozlev had purchased the store in the regional capital for 1.5 million leva and immediately began extensive renovations. In 2018, the prosecutor’s office closed the investigation into official misconduct, stating that no violations were found in the work of employees from the Nikola Kozlev municipality.
The left is fighting for at least three municipalities. The BSP has a chance to win in Shumen, which could be one of the regional capitals where the party may achieve a breakthrough. Another regional center the left is relying on is Smolyan, as reported by analysts from the BSP. They assess the chances in Shumen to be about 50-50, with a slight edge for the GERB candidate. Ultimately, everything in Shumen will hinge on the redistribution of votes during the runoff, according to observers.
This landscape highlights the tight competitiveness of the election campaign in Shumen, indicating that every vote will be critical in determining the next local government and outlining the future direction of the city’s leadership.
Observers indicate that a calculated campaign is underway in Shumen to fragment the left’s votes. Under the same socialdemocratic party mandate, one proxy has registered as a coalition partner of the BSP and is a candidate on its list, while another proxy has registered an alternative mayoral candidacy for former mayor Krasimir Kostov.
This reveals a pre-planned scheme aimed at siphoning votes away from the BSP, according to party watchers. It is estimated that the former mayor could potentially take away about 800 to 1,000 votes, which may cost the BSP between one to two council seats. Nevertheless, predictions suggest that the left is likely to increase its current number of council members from 7 to 10-11.
According to analysts, the BSP also has significant chances in the municipality of Novi Pazar. Observers assess the possibilities of winning the mayoral post there to be over 55%, despite the fragmentation of votes for the left in Novi Pazar as well.
This strategic maneuvering within the political landscape underscores the competitive nature of the elections and the complex dynamics at play, which could significantly impact the composition of local governance in Shumen and its surrounding areas. The ongoing battle for votes will play a crucial role in determining which party emerges victorious in the upcoming elections.
