Will DPS or BSP take a mandate from Gabrovo? This is the question looming ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Bulgaria on April 9. It is almost certain that in a region that sends only four deputies to the National Assembly, three of them will be from GERB-SDS, PP-DB, and “Vazrazhdane.”
The sentiments of voters in the Gabrovo region for the upcoming extraordinary parliamentary elections on June 9 can best be predicted against the backdrop of results from the last five elections. When discussing the potential distribution of the four mandates from Gabrovo, it is essential to take into account the trend of decreasing support for PP-DB, which has been clearly evident even when the two factions were not united; the growing support for “Vazrazhdane,” which has risen significantly; the nearly vanishing electorate for BSP and ITN; and the relatively stable levels of approval for GERB-SDS.
This complex electoral landscape suggests a competitive race ahead, with the dynamics of voter preferences likely to play a critical role in determining which party ultimately secures the remaining parliamentary mandate.
This situation is unlikely to change, as the local authorities in the two largest municipalities—Gabrovo and Sevlievo—are led by GERB, and in Sevlievo, the connections with DPS have been strong and longstanding.
Only “Vazrazhdane” is drawing votes, while all other parties are losing.
“For the Truth” retrieved from the archives of the Central Election Commission the votes for the main contenders for a seat in the next Bulgarian parliament from April 4, 2021, to April 2, 2023. The results clearly show that everyone is losing votes, with only “Vazrazhdane” registering increasing support. In numerical terms, this translates to nearly a fivefold increase in votes for the party, which has secured a deputy from Gabrovo in the three National Assemblies since November 2021, October 2022, and April 2023. Moreover, the leader of the list, Daniel Petrov, appeared seemingly out of nowhere and was not a well-known figure in the region, which confirms the trend of local voters choosing not to vote for individuals but rather out of sympathy for a particular party or coalition.
If it is true that “Vazrazhdane” has reached the ceiling of its support and that its voters are not too fatigued to go to the polls, the party is almost certain to secure a mandate in the city of humor on June 9.
GERB-SDS is in a Favorable Position
Undoubtedly, GERB-SDS will also win a mandate, and not because Tomislav Donchev, who has shown little concern for regional issues in the last parliaments, is at the top of their list, but because GERB has been deeply entrenched in local governance for years. This gives them an advantage over the other formations, as reflected in the election results over the years.
Although the number of votes for Borisov’s party is decreasing, the decline amounts to about four thousand votes, which is unlikely to affect the distribution of mandates. However, GERB cannot hope for two mandates as they did after the elections in April 2021, as the distribution has since been influenced by PP-DB, and it has become clear that “Vazrazhdane” is now a factor in regional politics as well.
PP-DB May Lose Votes, But Will Secure a Mandate
The third mandate is likely to go to PP-DB, although it appears that the coalition may record a new decline in trust. There are two main reasons for this prediction: the first is that the leader of the list in Gabrovo, Yavor Bozhankov, has not been known to appear in the region since the last elections, and the second is the serious efforts made over the past year to tarnish PP-DB’s image, including through local authorities.
It is almost certain that ITN cannot count on a mandate from Gabrovo, leaving the fourth mandate to go to either BSP or DPS.
A Deputy with Less than Two Thousand Votes – This is the System
It is indeed strange that someone can become a deputy with fewer than two thousand votes, but that is exactly what happened twice in Gabrovo with the DPS leader. In November 2021, the party sent Yusein Veyselov to Parliament with 1,672 votes, and in October 2022, he became a deputy with just over a hundred votes more.
In this context, BSP could also count on securing one mandate, but as with DPS, the mathematics will determine from which party the fourth Gabrovo deputy will come. After Kornelia Ninova disregarded local socialists and placed Ivan Chenev at the top of the list, it is very likely that the little over three thousand votes BSP received in the last elections in the spring of 2023 will diminish further, bringing it to a level of support nearly equal to that of DPS. In such a scenario, the redistribution of votes is crucial in determining where the mandate goes.
