For the first time in its history as a party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) may finish without a mandate in Shumen, once considered one of the “red fortresses” of the left. In the elections on April 2, the socialists garnered only 5,256 votes in the region (9.12%), placing them fifth behind DPS, GERB, PP-DB, and “Vazrazhdane.”
It is unlikely that BSP’s percentage will be sufficient to secure one of the six parliamentary mandates in the 30th Multi-Member Electoral District – Shumen. Preliminary calculations suggest that DPS and GERB will each obtain two mandates, while PP-DB and “Vazrazhdane” will receive one each. However, BSP’s party staff hopes for a chance to gain a mandate from the remaining votes through the Hare-Niemeyer method, potentially taking one of GERB’s two mandates.
If this does not materialize, Kornelia Ninova’s party will face its greatest failure in the Shumen region, where it once received around 27,000 votes. Just six years ago, in the parliamentary elections of 2017, BSP had over 19,000 votes in Shumen. Since then, however, the party has continually lost support in the region. On April 4, 2021, BSP fell to 10,330 votes, and in the extraordinary elections of July 2021, it further dropped to 7,668 votes. Now, the loss is catastrophic—only 5,256 voters in Shumen have supported the BSP, despite expectations that the return of paper ballots would bring older members and supporters to the polls.
Regardless of how events unfold, the leader of the red list, Ivan Ivanov, will enter parliament, as he is also at the top of the list in Ruse. Ivanov, a former Minister of Agriculture in Kiril Petkov’s government, is among the few who lead two parliamentary lists.
This situation underscores the significant challenges faced by the BSP and highlights the shifting political landscape in Bulgaria, particularly in regions that traditionally aligned with the left.
The Rise of “Vazrazhdane”: Not a New Development on the Patriotic Front
In addition to the catastrophic failure of the BSP, another noteworthy element in the recent early parliamentary elections is the rise of “Vazrazhdane.” The pro-Russian party led by Kostadin Kostadinov experienced a staggering 40% increase in support in the Shumen region within the six months between the October 2022 elections and those in April 2023. The nationalist formation received 6,382 votes in Shumen, which is 1,811 more than in October, securing it fourth place in the region. This achievement allowed “Vazrazhdane” to displace the BSP and capture the left’s parliamentary mandate.
In the parliamentary elections of April 2021, “Vazrazhdane” garnered only 1,185 votes in Shumen. By October 2022, the pro-Russian party had already increased its standings to 4,571 votes, accounting for 7.88% of the total ballots in the region. Just six months later, Kostadinov’s party has reached 11% of the votes in Shumen and secured a parliamentary mandate. Remarkably, this growth occurred without a significant electoral campaign, and “Vazrazhdane” was notably absent from the media, where most political parties traditionally publish their campaign advertisements and messages.
This rapid ascent of “Vazrazhdane” highlights a shifting political landscape in Bulgaria, reflecting an increasing appetite among certain voter bases for nationalist and pro-Russian rhetoric. Such dynamics may further influence the country’s political discourse and the overall electoral landscape in the future.
Vazrazhdane’s Campaign Strategy and Candidate Profile in Shumen
The Shumen list of “Vazrazhdane” was presented at a press conference before the official campaign began, at a time when political appearances were still free of charge. Following this, the pre-election meetings and initiatives of “Vazrazhdane” were primarily promoted through the party’s social media pages, with little to no coverage in local media. Consequently, even journalists struggle to recall who the Shumen parliamentary candidates for “Vazrazhdane” are, but the lack of sufficient recognition did not hinder the party’s supporters.
In Shumen, as well as across the country, “Vazrazhdane” heavily relied on Facebook—a platform known for hosting Kostadin Kostadinov’s highly popular political page. Shumen’s activists and candidates also used social media to promote their electoral activities, which were mainly tied to the campaign for a referendum on “preserving the Bulgarian lev.” There were a few pre-election meetings, which were similarly communicated through social networks.
The leader of the Shumen list, Veselin Veshev, is a municipal councilor from “Vazrazhdane” in Varna. He has a long history as a weightlifter, coach, and referee. Veshev operates his own business in the agricultural sector and manages several companies. Since 1993, he has participated in bodybuilding competitions. In the parliamentary elections of November 2021, he led the “Vazrazhdane” list in Razgrad but did not secure a mandate. Now, Veshev will enter parliament as a deputy from Shumen. During the presentation of the list before the campaign kickoff, he stated that the current primary goal of “Vazrazhdane” is to gather signatures for a referendum on postponing Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone.
This approach emphasizes the party’s focus on social media engagement and direct voter outreach while showcasing their commitment to specific issues such as the national currency and economic sovereignty. The profile of their candidates reflects a blend of professional backgrounds and public engagement, further contributing to the evolving political landscape in Bulgaria.
The Rise of “Vazrazhdane” and Political Dynamics in Shumen
While “Vazrazhdane” has seen a significant rise in Shumen, this ascent is not unprecedented on the patriotic front in the region and is less impressive than similar formations have achieved in the past. The nationalist party “Ataka” garnered over 10,000 votes in the region during several parliamentary elections around a decade ago, and in 2017, the United Patriots secured more than 7,000 votes in Shumen. Currently, the electoral radar does not register either “Ataka” or other patriotic parties such as VMRO or the “National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria.” Clearly, there appears to be a quota of about 10,000 voters in Shumen who follow the so-called patriotic vote.
Nothing New in the Top Three
Aside from the surprises involving the BSP and “Vazrazhdane,” there was nothing novel in the latest parliamentary elections in Shumen. Voter turnout remained the same as in October 2022, the campaign was just as lackluster as six months prior, and even the top three winners remained unchanged.
DPS Remains the Leading Political Force
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) once again emerged as the leading political force in the Shumen region, with 25.24% of the votes, totaling 14,548 ballots. Although the movement lost 549 votes compared to the previous elections, it maintains its position at the top and will send two deputies back to parliament. Leading the DPS list are party leader Mustafa Karadayi and incumbent deputy Hamid Hamid, both of whom entered the previous parliament from Shumen.
GERB Fails to Regain Its Position
In second place in the region is GERB – SDS, with 24.37%, or 14,047 votes. While GERB saw a slight increase of 277 votes since the last elections, Borisov’s party has not been able to reclaim its leading position in Shumen, which it lost in July 2021. At that time, GERB received just over 15,000 votes and was overtaken by the DPS. In 2017, Borisov’s party had 24,000 votes in the Shumen region, but it has since continually diminished its influence and has now lost 10,000 voters. Nevertheless, GERB has managed to mobilize votes from the second-level administrative apparatus, where nearly none of the party appointments have changed. In these elections, GERB won the most votes in 5 out of the 10 municipalities in Shumen Province—Shumen, Veliki Preslav, Smyadovo, Kaspichan, and Nikola Kozlevo. Four of these five municipalities are governed by GERB mayors.
The political scene in Shumen illustrates shifting dynamics, with traditional parties like the BSP facing significant challenges while nationalist sentiment appears to solidify in the form of “Vazrazhdane.” The continued prominence of DPS highlights the persistence of established political forces, while GERB’s struggle to regain its former strength suggests a complex and evolving electoral landscape.
Election Outcomes in Shumen: Continuity and Change
At the top of the GERB-SDS list are Krasimir Velchev and Ilter Beyzatoff. Since 2021, they have held the first two positions on the list, with Krasimir Velchev consistently stepping back to the second position, as he leads in Stara Zagora. In the previous parliament, Shumen elected the second candidate on the list, Ilter Beyzatoff, and the third, Ralitsa Todorova, the regional chair of GERB. If GERB secures two seats in the new parliament, they will again send the same deputies—Beyzatoff and Todorova.
PPG and DB Coalition Fails to Improve Results
In third place in the Shumen region was the coalition “We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria,” which received a total of 10,720 votes, or 18.60%. Despite the alliance, the coalition garnered fewer votes than in October 2022. At that time, PPG and DB individually won 11,340 votes. Now, their combined performance resulted in 620 fewer votes, despite widely advertised support from the mayor of Hitrino, Nuridin Ismail. In the previous elections, Hitrino had supported “We Continue the Change,” and it was informally expected that the municipality would contribute several thousand votes to the PPG-DB coalition. However, this expectation did not materialize. PPG-DB will retain one parliamentary mandate in Shumen, as before, with academician Nikolai Denkov once again leading the list.
Consistency in Shumen’s Parliamentary Representation
As a result, five out of the six Shumen deputies will be the same individuals as before. The only new addition after these elections will be the leader of “Vazrazhdane,” Veselin Veshev.
The Decline of ITN in Shumen
“I Have Such a People” (ITN), who entered parliament just before the last elections, received 1,682 votes in Shumen, which is fewer than the 1,700+ votes they garnered in October 2022. The peak moment for Slavi Trifonov’s party in Shumen was during the July 2021 elections when ITN secured nearly 20% of the vote, amounting to 12,730 votes.
The results of the recent elections in Shumen highlight a significant degree of continuity in parliamentary representation, with established parties maintaining their positions despite the introduction of new contenders. This points to persistent voting patterns and the challenges facing emerging parties in altering the political landscape in the region.
Voter Turnout and the “None of the Above” Option in Shumen
On April 2, a total of 1,817 voters in the Shumen region opted for the “None of the Above” option, an increase of 200 from the previous elections.
Low Voter Turnout
The voter turnout in the Shumen region was 31.98%, with 58,828 exercising their right to vote out of 183,928 voters registered on the electoral rolls.
The highest turnout was recorded in the municipality of Vurbitsa at 37.7%, followed by Nikola Kozlevo with 36.4%. In contrast, the lowest participation rates were in Hitrino, where only 26.9% voted, and in Veliki Preslav with 26.6%. The regional center, Shumen, saw a turnout of 32.9%.
Overall, the voter turnout in Shumen was lower than the national average, which stood at approximately 40.6%.
These figures reflect ongoing challenges in engaging the electorate and highlight a growing sentiment of disillusionment among voters, as indicated by the increase in those choosing to abstain from endorsing any candidates.
